THE QUESTIONABLE FATE OF PROPOSITION 8 IN CALIFORNIA

"The literature that volunteers distributed was intended to reinforce the campaign's message that the amendment is pro-marriage and children instead of anti-gay.

"'California should do more to encourage families to stay together,' reads the pamphlets illustrated with close-ups of heterosexual couples posed cheek-to-cheek.

"Frank Schubert, who is co-managing the Yes on 8 campaign, said the outreach effort is designed to counter the principle message of gay rights advocates, who are portraying the upcoming vote as a matter of fairness and equality.

"They want people to feel like you are a bad person if you support what has been the definition of marriage since the dawn of time,' Schubert said. By having face-to-face conversations about why the amendment is necessary, organizers hope to reach potential supporters who may worry that voting for the measure would get them labeled as 'bigots or homophobes,' he said.

[For the full article, see here.]

A couple of months ago, I wrote that I was cautiously optimistic about the defeat of Proposition 8 in California, the Proposition that seeks to limit marriage in California to one man and one woman. I am now not at all optimistic about its defeat!

With Obama moving ever more to the Right, directly or indirectly backtracking on promises he made earlier on in his campaign, such as the issues of off-shore drilling, faith based initiatives, and troop withdrawals from Iraq, increasing numbers of liberals are likely to have become disaffected with him and his candidacy and might well stay home on election day, as it looks like it will be "politics as usual" in an Obama presidency. It can be said of Obama, as Truman once said about another politician, "He takes his friends for granted and tries to buy his enemies."

Those who like McCain for President are usually the ones who are white, middle class, and older, and they are the ones that are not only most likely to vote, but are those most likely to be in agreement with the message of Proposition 8.

It may be expected that many young people who were energized by the "early Obama," have lost their fervor for his candidacy, and may well not show up at the polls, and will thereby yield more votes to McCain; this is the demographic that would have most likely voted against Proposition 8 that seeks to write discrimination into California's Constitution, despite the spin put on that Proposition by its supporters, as seen in the quote above.

Therefore, I am more than a little pessimistic that Proposition 8 may well pass, and that would spell doom for at least a decade or more to not only same-sex marriage in California, but same-sex marriage in many other states as well. Moreover, as a possible spinoff should Proposition 8 pass, is that both California and other state officials might well become emboldened to rescind what civil rights protections are now afforded to their LGBT citizens. (For example, what is currently happening in Louisiana.)

Moreover, should McCain become President, his Supreme Court appointments would virtually guarantee a Court that would be heavily "conservative," and not be as likely to affirm same-sex marriage, or any other Gay rights legislation for that matter, should such cases be brought before it in the future.

All things considered, it doesn't look good! And, with Clinton supporters angry with Obama, many of them may not only not vote for him on election day, but some might vote for McCain just out of their frustration from their perceptions that the media favored Obama in its coverage of the nomination pricess to the exclusion of Clinton, thus helping to doom her candidacy.

Unless Clinton manages to take over the convention, something not very likely, there will likely be a McCain presidency, with all the expected priorities and Supreme Court appointments that we have seen in the last 8 years of the Bush presidency.

Moreover, in addition to Obama's moving much further to the Right, by choosing a Washington insider Joe Biden as his running mate (who also has potential discrediting baggage) may also have helped alienate Obama from much of his younger constituency, who thought that Obama, the candidate of "change," and who didn't want "politics as usual," would really and readily capitulate to "the establishment" after all.

And, of course, Obama has always come out against same-sex marriage, so it might well be that many Gay people might not vote for him and will stay away from the polls as well!

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